How to Beat Scratchoffs

Here are a few old posts with simple strategies for beating scratchers, as well as a look at the math we use at Dr. Lotto.

Each strategy is backed up by math and simulations that you can verify for yourself.

Buy Until A Winning Ticket

This is probably the simplest strategy to use. It's the easiest way to immediately improve your odds. Look at the proof yourself and learn exactly how much more you could be winning by following this one simple rule.

Switch Packs After Big Winner

This is another simple-to-follow rule that has an immediate impact on your winnings. The benefit you get from this strategy depends on the number of tickets you plan on buying. The fewer tickets you buy in a single attempt, the lesser the benefit. But for serious players who can afford to buy up to 100 tickets or more, this strategy can drastically improve your odds.

Exploiting Non-Randomness in Scratchoff Lotteries

I think I can convince you that you can win money playing scratchoff lottery tickets. You can't win all the time, but the circumstances under which you can win are fairly common. I'll give you two primary reasons for thinking scratchoffs can be beat. Prize distribution is not random; the value of future tickets is based on what prizes were previously claimed.

Simple Scratchoff Example of Expected Value

Imagine a simple game with 10 tickets that cost $1 each. There are two $2 winners and one $5 "grand prize" winner. When all tickets are sold, the state will have made $10 (10 tickets * $1). The total amount the state will have paid out will be $4 (2 tickets * $2) + $5 (1 ticket * $5) = $9. This game is profitable for the state by $1. Players will spend $10 and get back $9 for a 9/10 or 90% "expected value", a 10% loss.

Scratchoff Tickets Are Not Random

Thanks to a Texas lawsuit, we have some interesting insight into prize distribution. Some examples of how scratchoffs are not random include: a maximum number of consecutive losing tickets; a maximum number of winners over a certain amount per book; grand prizes distributed evenly throughout a game. These properties can be exploited for profit.