Don't Buy From Pack After A Big Win Was Claimed
A common clause in the contract between states and scratch off ticket printers is that there can be no more than 1 winner above a certain amount per pack of tickets.
Scratch Off Ticket Working Papers
Don't take my word for it. Verify this for yourself. Find the contract (known as the "working papers") that your state has with its ticket printer.
Here's an example of the contract between Louisiana and the printing company Scientific Games.
In section 4 of that contract, you'll see the parameters required by the printing software.
Section 4.2.3 is the clause that we care about.
No more than one winner of $100 and above per pack.
How Much Is This Strategy Worth?
A Note And A Warning
The math I outline here only applies if you are equipped to buy a lot of tickets. In this case, I'm talking about buying up to 100 $10 tickets.
Now, even if you don't feel like shelling out that much as part of a lottery ticket strategy, the advice still holds true. You can still improve your odds by following this strategy. But the degree to which you improve your odds will be much less.
The Math
Let's use the game from the working papers above as an example.
Section 1.3 of the working papers shows that the payout for this game is 68.75%. We'll use that number as the average amount we win and we'll see how much of an advantage we can get by stopping when we get a prize $100 or more.
In the "50X PAYOUT" game from the Louisiana Lottery, the odds of getting a $100 prize 1 in 93.75. We'll round that up to 1 in 100 to make the math easier. That's a small enough rounding error that the end result will be about the same.
Since the odds of getting a $100 prize is about 1 in 100, and since there are 25 tickets per pack, that means that we should get a $100 prize every 4 packs (4 packs times 25 tickets per pack equals 100 tickets).
How much would we win (on average) if we bought all 100 tickets?
Since the average payout for this game is 68.75%, our average win would be 100 tickets times $10 each times 68.75%.
That's 100 * $10 * 0.6875 equals $687.50.
We would have spend $1,000 (100 tickets times $10 each), and we would have won $687.50. That's a loss of 312.50, or $3.13 per ticket.
How much would we save by stopping when we get a prize over $100?
Now let's see how much we can improve on that.
If we know there's a $100 prize every 100 tickets, and we know there's 25 tickets per pack, then we know we need to buy 4 packs on average.
And, that means there's a 1 in 4 chance that the $100 prize will be in the first pack we buy. There's a 1 in 4 chance that it will be in the second pack. A 1 in 4 chance it will be in the 3rd pack. And finally a 1 in 4 chance it's in the 4th and final pack.
Wrapping Up
- Different games have different qualifications for what they consider a "high-end" and "low-end" prize.
- Check the working papers for games in your state to be sure.
- This is an extreme strategy that involves buying dozens of tickets to maximize your chances.
- Even if you only plan on buying a few tickets, you should buy them one at a time and you should stop when you hit a big winner.